COSMO Wave 1.11

Background

To support federal response efforts, Impact Canada is leading the implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Behavioural Insights (BI) Tool on COVID-19 in the Canadian context. This work is led in collaboration with the Public Opinion Research Team within the Privy Council Office’s (PCO) Communications and Consultation Secretariat, which supports the Prime Minister’s Office in coordinating government communications in accordance with key priorities.

Methodology

With a longitudinal design, the study follows 2,000 participants recruited from an online panel over sixteen data collection waves. New participants are added only when an original panelist stops participating.

Respondents are a representative mix of Canadian adults aged 18 years and older and results are weighted using 2016 Statistics Canada census data to mirror the population distribution in Canada.

Considerations

When interpreting the COSMO results it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may or may not have influenced the responses of survey participants. During the Wave 11 data collection period (February 9-16, 2021):

1. The national COVID-19 case numbers in Canada as of February 8 were 808,120 (the data before data collection began).
   • British Columbia reported 343 new cases; 65,605 cases have recovered, for a total of 4,088 (-1,815) active cases.
   • Alberta reported 269 new cases; 119,130 cases have recovered, for a total of 6,196 (-46) active cases.
   • Saskatchewan reported 171 new cases; 23,029 cases have recovered, for a total of 2,204 (-159) active cases.
   • Manitoba reported 52 new cases; 27,817 cases have recovered, for a total of 1,622 (-1,634) active cases.
   • Ontario reported 1,265 new cases; 258,603 cases have recovered, for a total of 14,331 (-468) active cases.
   • Quebec reported 853 new cases; 249,361 cases have recovered, for a total of 11,504 (-411) active cases.
   • NL, NB, NS, PEI, YT, NT and NU all reported zero or very low case numbers.
2. During the Wave 11 data collection period (Feb 9-16), COVID-19 cases were declining in Canada and in other parts of the world. Despite declining cases, media coverage focused heavily on the new, more contagious COVID-19 variants and the potential of another resurgence.
3. The Government of Canada announced stricter travel measures (January 29) prior to data collection, highlighting the risk of imported COVID-19 cases.
4. The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine and the Moderna vaccine had been approved for use in Canada and initial vaccines had been administered. Media coverage of other vaccine candidates, including AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, was also circulating.
   • According to public sources, as of February 8 (the day before data collection began), PTs had administered 1,096,225 vaccine doses.

Public Risk Perceptions

The proportion of respondents who indicated that “the worst of the crisis is behind us” increased sharply between Waves 10 (10%) and 11 (25%), as the number of respondents who think we are “currently experiencing the worst of the crisis” and think that “the worst is behind us” declined. Respondents aged 18-34 are more likely to think that “the worst of the crisis is behind us” (37%), compared to other age groups (23% of respondents aged 35-54 and 18% of respondents 55+). Similarly, the proportion of respondents who think that COVID-19 feels like it is “spreading fast,” declined from 55% in Wave 10 to 42% in Wave 11.

In addition, despite the first vaccine approvals in Canada and news of other promising vaccine candidates, which have been framed by some as “a light at the end of the tunnel,” many people continue to feel that we are in the worst of the crisis (35%) or that the worst is yet to come (27%). Other significant features (e.g., increases in reported negative mental health impacts and economic difficulties) may continue to dampen optimism for the future for many respondents regardless of vaccine announcements.

Information Sources

Trust in and use of government information sources was highest early on in the pandemic and has declined since. In Wave 11, use of and trust in government information sources about COVID-19 (e.g., federal public health leaders, daily press conferences) are at the lowest levels COSMO has observed since data collection began in April 2020 (see figure below). There was a slight increase in trust in some information sources between Waves 9 and 10, but these gains were lost by Wave 11. Trust remains the highest in Government health agencies (49%) and provincial public health leaders (46%), and federal public health leaders (44%).

Across time, respondents aged 55+ have consistently reported the highest levels of trust in most government sources, and respondents aged 18-34 are the most distrustful. Trust in government information sources also varies by province/territory. In Wave 11, trust in government information sources about COVID-19 was the highest in the Atlantic Provinces, and British Columbia and the Yukon. Trust is the lowest in Alberta and the Northwest Territories.

In Wave 11, respondents were given a series of true and false statements about COVID-19 and asked to indicate the extent to which they thought the statements were accurate. The results indicate that some respondents are susceptible to believing false information, men and young people in particular. For example, 23% of respondents thought the following statement was “probably true” or “definitely true”: “To rush COVID-19 vaccines to the market, pharmaceutical companies took shortcuts that compromise their safety”.

In Wave 11 using a randomized split-sample approach, half of the sample was asked how often they attempt to correct friends or family when they hear them spreading false information (‘fake news’) related to COVID-19 in conversation. The other half of the sample was asked how often they attempt to correct friends or family when they see them spreading false information online. A majority of respondents report that they either always or sometimes attempt to correct misinformation related to COVID-19. However, results indicate that individuals might be slightly more comfortable correcting misinformation when they hear it in conversation compared to online.

Compliance with Protective Behaviours

The majority of COSMO respondents report always or almost always complying with most public health measures such as mask wearing (85%), frequent hand washing (71%, and physical distancing (75%). In Wave 11, respondents who reported adhering to public health measures were asked what their motivations were for practicing recommended behaviours. The top motivations for following public health guidance were to protect loved ones and the community (65%), followed by protecting themselves (57%), and following the recommendations of health experts/scientists/government (49%). At the same time, respondents indicated high levels of difficulty continuing to stay separated from loved ones for much longer (as compared to maintaining other public health measures like wearing a mask in public and hand washing).

Advanced statistical modelling has identified 8 factors that account for approximately 40% of the differences seen in reported adherence to public health behaviours. Anxiety related to family’s health, trust in government sources of information, and trust in medical experts were the strongest predictors of adherence to behaviours. Perceptions that COVID is overblown was the strongest predictor of noncompliance with health behaviours.

Mental Health

Reported life satisfaction among respondents in Wave 11 was at the lowest point COSMO has observed since data collection began in April 2020. Just over a third of respondents (35%) are very satisfied/satisfied with their lives (down from 45% in Wave 1), while 24% are very dissatisfied/dissatisfied (up from 19% in Wave 1). In addition, high numbers of respondents continue to report feeling depressed (39%), lonely (39%) and anxious (45%) occasionally or most/all of the time.

Disaggregation of the data by age suggests the pandemic has been particularly difficult for respondents aged 18-34 with regard to mental health. Young people – young women in particular – are reporting higher levels of loneliness (23% of respondents aged 18-34 reported feeling lonely most or all of the time, compared to 17% of respondents aged 35-54 and 13% of respondents aged 55+), and depression (23% reported feeling depressed most or all of the time, compared to 14% of respondents aged 35-54 and 10% of respondents aged 55+). New data in Wave 11 indicates that women are more likely than men to agree or strongly agree that COVID-19 makes them feel afraid and angry. For example, 41% of women with children reported that COVID-19 makes them feel angry, compared to 27% of men with children.

Vaccine confidence

COSMO asks respondents about their intentions to vaccinate across several different measures to add nuance to our growing understanding of hesitancy and its drivers. Overall vaccine intentions increased in Wave 11 and more respondents indicate that they will get a vaccine as soon as it is available to them. At the time of data collection, 4% of respondents indicated that they had already received at least one dose of a vaccine. These respondents were excluded from the vaccine intentions questions.

Using a categorical question, respondents were asked: ‘If a COVID-19 vaccine became available to you, would you get vaccinated, or not?’ with the following response options: ‘Yes, I would get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it became available to me’; ‘Yes, I would eventually get a COVID-19 vaccine, but would want to wait a bit’; ‘No, I would not get a COVID-19 vaccine’; and, ‘Not sure’. When the option to defer choice was introduced in this question, 58% of respondents indicated that they would get vaccinated right away (up from 49% in Wave 10), and 24% said that they would want to wait before getting vaccinated (down from 31% in Wave 10). Compared to Wave 10, the length of time respondents indicate they intend to wait has decreased. In Wave 11, more respondents said they would wait 1-2 months (46%; up from 39% in Wave 10) and fewer respondents said they would wait several months or longer (38%; up from 50% in Wave 10).

35% of respondents indicate that they need more information before deciding whether to get a vaccine. Compared to those who indicate they intend to get vaccinated right away (7%), the proportions of respondents who need more information are higher among those who want to wait before getting a vaccine (48%), those who are unsure (68%), and those who indicate that they would not get a vaccine (43%). Akin to previous waves, respondents indicate they need information about the safety, effectiveness, side effects, and long-term efficacy of the vaccine, as well and outcomes of early recipients of the vaccine.

Due to the potential availability of multiple vaccines each with different efficacy, respondents who indicated some level of willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccine were also asked about what was most important to them when selecting a vaccine. “Receiving the most effective vaccine” (47%) was the most commonly selected option, followed by “Receiving any vaccine as soon as possible” (15%) and “Receiving the vaccine with the fewest reported side effects” (12%). Considerations about the number of doses and vaccine technologies were relatively unpopular selections. A sizable portion of respondents (14%) also indicated they do not have a strong preference on what COVID-19 vaccine they receive.

Returning to Normal

When asked about the likelihood of re-engaging in behaviors that were normal pre-pandemic, only a minority of respondents think it is likely that they will go to a large indoor gathering (22%), fly on a plane (13%), or travel to the US (10%) in the next year (see figure below). Young respondents (18-34) are more likely to say that it is likely that they will engage in these behaviours in the next year, and older respondents (55+) report that they are less likely to do so.

Travel Intentions and Border Measures

A majority of respondents indicate that they would like to see both US restrictions (85%) and international restrictions (83%) remain in place for 1-6+ months (see figure below). Travel intentions and intentions to fly on a plane within the next year also remain low. When respondents are asked to rate their level of comfort with increasing travel with certain countries there is low comfort overall. The only country where respondents have become somewhat more comfortable with increased travel is Australia (13% in Wave 9 and 17% in Wave 11). In addition, respondents are slightly more comfortable allowing more travellers for business and study purposes, compared to personal reasons (i.e., visiting family and friends, tourism).

In Wave 11 respondents were asked to indicate whether they thought stricter travel measures (i.e., a requirement to take a COVID-19 test at the airport upon arrival, a requirement to self-isolate in designated facilities, and a requirement to show proof of COVID-19 immunization) would effectively reduce the risk of importing COVID-19 cases among Canadian and foreign travellers. A majority of respondents thought these measures would be effective/very effective or moderately effective. Additional analysis undertaken by the IIU indicates that the small minority of respondents (~5-6%) who support ending US-Canada and international travel restrictions are more likely to think that COVID-19 feels overblown, and are less likely to think that COVID-19 feels worrisome and stressful. In addition, respondents who are most supportive of ending US-Canada and international travel restrictions indicated that they practiced recommended preventative health behaviours less frequently and had lower COVID-19 vaccination intentions.